Virginia could end Election Night very early

Hello all!
I haven't written a Diary here for a while so thought I'm writing this.
It's so great to see Democratic Community coming together after such a tough Primary.
My thought is that the Commonwealth of Virginia could send us into bead on Election Night very early if the new SUSA Virginia Poll is to be believed.
New Survey USA Virginia Poll/Oct. 4-5/666 Likely Voters/MOE 3.9
Presidential Race
Barack Obama (D) 53 %
John McCain (R) 43 %
Others 3 %
Undecided 1 %

Key Facts:
As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df79 6e8fe5&c=77

Senate Race
Mark Warner (D) 61 %
Jim Gilmore (R) 31 %
Gail Parker (G) 3 %
Bill Redpath (L) 3 %
Undecided 3 %

Key Facts:
Democratic Tide Almost Certain to Sweep Mark Warner into US Senate Seat Vacated by Republican John Warner: In an election for United States Senator from Virginia today, 10/06/08, Democrat Mark Warner defeats Republican Jim Gilmore 2:1, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Independent Green candidate Gail Parker gets 3% of the vote; Libertarian Bill Redpath gets 3%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, the Democrat Warner is up 4 points, the Republican Gilmore is down 3.

Mark Warner, who served as Virginia's governor from 2002-2006, continues to take the majority of voters in all demographic groups and all regions of the state. 28% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Warner. Jim Gilmore, who served as Virginia's governor from 1998 to 2002, gets 66% of Republican votes, 59% of conservative voters, and 54% of those who describe themselves as pro-life; Gilmore takes no more than 36% of any other group. John Warner, the incumbent Republican United States Senator, was first elected in 1978 and is currently serving his fifth term in office; he is not seeking a sixth term. John Warner and Mark Warner, who are not related, ran against one another in 1996; John Warner won then by 5 points and was re-elected to his fourth term. If Mark Warner is elected, both of Virginia's U.S. Senate seats will be held by Democrats; Jim Webb defeated Republican George Allen, who was running for his second term, in 2006.
Link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=e7dc1b60-536e-444e-82bd-646342 82de72&c=77

Filtering:
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.



Display:


Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (1.00 / 0)

If you believe this poll you are crazy.


by karajan72 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:08:32 PM EST

Suffolk University poll (none / 0)

confirms this...has Obama up 12.

What say you now?

http://www.suffolk.edu/research/31216.ht ml


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Both too high (none / 0)

Obama leads in Virginia, and he'll likely win the state. But I doubt he leads by more than 5.


Formerly Clintonite4McCain Joe Lieberman Democrat. Supported Biden then Clinton. Will vote for Obama/Biden over McCain/Palin.
by ClintoniteNoLonger4McCain on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I refuse to believe this... (none / 0)

...I want to, but that seems awfully strong.  Now if there's just one more poll showing that divide, we're getting somewhere.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:40:25 PM EST

Re: I refuse to believe this... (2.00 / 2)

Suffolk came out with Obama 51%-39% McCain.

This election is just about over.


by sweet potato pie on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:43:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I refuse to believe this... (none / 0)

Yep I was just coming here to post that.

Please Virginians, vote early!


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

Last week Rasmussen came out with 50-47 in favor of Obama. So tonight we'll see if the trend stays the same.


AnnMarie
by wiscogirl101 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:54:05 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

cnn also had a poll last week showing obama leading 53-44.  i'd say right on track.  mccain hasn't been there in weeks, and spends 93k a week in VA as opposed to obama's mil+. either mccain's confident, hoping for a wilder effect, or an idiot.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/b attleground.polls/?iref=mpstoryview


Being Normal is for the Mediocre.
by Doug Tuttle on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:55:08 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (2.00 / 1)

I would be inclined to toss either this or the Suffolk poll as outliers (as I do the DK/R2K tracker every day) if they existed in a vacuum.  But having come out so close together and showing effectively the same result, I'm inclined to believe there's at least some fire there - O is probably +4-5, at least.

I've been a big believer that 270 (well, 272) is the only number that matters, and Obama should spend his dough in the three "must-win" states where his lead is most tenuous - CO, MN and NH.  But maybe he's actually stronger in VA than CO, who knows - and he certainly has enough cash to inundate both.


by Deeg on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:01:00 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (2.00 / 1)

Obama also leads in New Hampshire per SUSA
Link:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=a8255cdc-82a4-4a10-8cf2-063b66 6e514c&c=24
Jeanne Shaheen also leads John Sununu by 8.
Link:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=01742385-40ee-4b48-86b3-aff1db 3d821d

by Obamafan on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:01:03 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

Virginia uses all electronic voting, which is bad for us in many ways, but it also means that the results will be in very quickly...  A full count will be finished by 10pm EST, and a call may come way earlier than that if these numbers hold up...


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:06:00 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

Why is electronic voting bad for us?


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (2.00 / 1)

Diebold... need I say any more?


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 03:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

Oh. Right.


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:25:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Polling isn't exact science (none / 0)

Gore polled below his vote totals and Kerry above them going into the final days of the election.

These latest results are certainly cause for cautious optimism but we still have four weeks of ass-kicking left to do.

By the time November 4 rolls around I want McCain/Palin's debacle of a campaign to have sent the neo-con/evangelical movement into the annals of history as abject failures once and for all.


by charliemike on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:26:37 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

If this is confirmed in another poll- this is a game stopper.


by RAULC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:43:10 PM EST

If not VA, then maybe NC - Obama by 6 (none / 0)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_NC_100625.pdf

New PPP Poll has Obama leading by 6 in North Carolina, 50-44


Enough is enough!
by Bear83 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 04:48:45 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

If BO wins VA than it will be a very early night for us and thta is that.  BO wins VA and it is over.  I am surprised by how well BO is doing in VA but my guess is Warner will give BO a big push in VA where he might win with 60% or more of the vote and he may have coat tales that helps BO a couple of % and that might be enough to do it.

Funny i really didnt think VA was in play and thought OH or CO would be the states where he would break through.

david


by giusd on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:33:26 PM EST

Re: Virginia could end Election Night very early (none / 0)

SWEEP! with an early bedtime.

Champagne always puts me to sleep.


"But not me personally were those cheers for"
by QTG on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 12:47:44 PM EST


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