MyDD :: Tracking Poll Update:

Tracking Poll Update:

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:39:27 PM EST

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	48	41
Gallup	51	41
Rasmussen Reports	50	45
Research 2000/dKos	52	40


Average:	50.25	41.75

In today's other polling, the Battleground tracker (.pdf) is largely in line with the four-poll average above, with Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 51 percent to 43 percent margin. The latest survey from Time (.pdf) isn't too far off either, pegging Obama's lead at 50 percent to 44 percent.

So what do we know now? With at least two-thirds of the interviews upon which the data above are based taking place after Tuesday night's presidential debate, Obama's lead is as big, if not bigger, than it was before the debate, when his four-poll average lead stood at 49.75 percent to 42.75 percent. In fact, there has been very little movement in the last 13 days, with Obama's average showing ranging from 49.25 percent to 50.25 percent, and McCain's average showing ranging from 41.75 percent too 43.00 percent even through a window of time that included two presidential debates and one vice presidential debate. In other words, despite the seeming ups and downs of the campaign, the race has actually remained somewhat static as of late, interestingly enough, which isn't a great sign for the GOP.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 21 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

the polls in some states (IN, FL,) seem to be tightening. i'm getting a bit anxious, but i guess i'm just being a democrat:P.

Being Normal is for the Mediocre.

by Doug Tuttle on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:56:47 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

They have played every card, but the Rev Wright card, and that they have to save till the last week.

It's going to get tighter, but it's not going to close it enough....

Our long national nightmare is over...in 17 days!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:23:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Its over. Obama can't lose. Fat Lady has sang. (none / 0)

Obama has the money and mo and the media has his back. It is IMPOSSIBLE for McCain to recover at this point.

McCain produce compromising pictures of Obama tomorrow and the media would ignore the content and focus on "angry" McCain.

This race is over.

Instead of million dollar 1/2 hour tv buys Obama should start spreading millions around to House and Senate campaigns (or to the DNC) to help get more allies elected come Nov.

by RichardFlatts on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:01:38 PM EST

complacency kills (none / 0)

as Michelle said the other night they are going to break the tape running.

I understand what you are saying, but think Obama's focus should be Obama and not letting go of it until the election is done.

by notedgeways on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:09:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree (none / 0)

Obama needs to make sure Obama wins and I have little doubt that's exactly what he intends to do. I mean, show me one major mistake his campaign has made.

And besides, I think 30 minute TeeVee appearance will be good for both Obama and the entire Democratic ticket down to dog catchers... assuming we still elect dog catchers somewhere.

by j royale on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Trust Axelrod and Ploufe (none / 0)

Those guys will STILL be pouring it on, Nov 4th all day....

McCain is getting tired, angry and cranky is not they way to run a race.

We have waited through 8 years of hell, I think we are running even faster at the end, when you realize, it's the end of Bush/McCain/Cheney and the rest of the Republican crime family....

Our long national nightmare is over...in 17 days!

by WashStateBlue on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Leading while early voting is going on... (2.00 / 1)

...means any McCain surge would probably have to be the mother of all surges to overcome any Obama lead that is already in the bank.

by magster on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:04:02 PM EST

Re: Leading while early voting is going on... (none / 0)

More and more I'm hearing "Obama will be our next president" from pundits on both CNN and MSNBC, particularly today. As the Dow drops, Obama is busy outlining specific economic change and relief proposals to the nation today, while McToast and Paliar are still mudslinging to their dwindling base in states he can only hope to win, rather than those he must win. Obama has increased his RPC National Average advantage from 5.6 yesterday to 6.3 today. His favorable rating has increased from 7.6 yesterday to 10.3 today, despite McCain's dishonorable campaign. It dosen't get any better than this.. or does it? :)

by phoenixdreamz on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 03:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

heh, a few days after the 1st debate I said that I thought things where settled, and most people had their minds made up... got called to carpet for it, but lookee lookee.

So far this election cycle the only major thing I haven't predicted right was McCain's VP pick, but I think I came close.

by notedgeways on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:06:45 PM EST

VP Pick (none / 0)

My guess was that McCain would pick someone crazy... which I thought was a safe guess given the pool he had to pick from. Boy, I never thought he'd opt for over the top, super bad crazy.

Whatever, I'm lovin' me some Palin' as she drives his credibility down a rat hole. You betcha.

by j royale on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:18:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

i will feel comfortable when it is 60-40

The sleep of reason begets monsters. -- Francisco Jose de Goya

by joe in oklahoma on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:16:40 PM EST

Re: Tracking Poll Update: (none / 0)

I hope you enjoy discomfort. I think we'll see a 53/44/3 election with a O=39x to M=13x electoral split.

John McCain, maverick

by lojasmo on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:29:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One more point... (none / 0)

...and that technically would be an Obama landslide.