These numbers, caught a few days ago by Marc Ambinder, are just stunning:
In the ABC News / Washington Post poll of Ohio, 37% of those who made it through the likely voter screen said they had been contacted by the Obama campaign in some way or another. That's ten points higher than the number who say they've been contacted by the McCain campaign.And adding in e-mails or texts, the Obama figure rises to 43% of voters -- probably a record for a presidential campaign.
Think about this number for a moment. About three in eight voters deemed likely to show up to the polls in Ohio on November 4 have been contacted by the Obama campaign. Considering that hardcore Republicans -- say 40 percent or so of the electorate -- is out of play for Obama, that means that upwards of 72 percent of likely voters who could even conceivably vote for Barack Obama have heard from his campaign, whether through a knock on the door, a piece of direct mail delivered to the house, a call on the phone, a text to the cell, or an email sent to the computer. All of this, of course, about a month away from election day.
The ground game metrics may not come through in the top like numbers from polling around the country, but when it comes to election day -- when it actually counts -- the team with the far superior GOTV organization generally is able to pull out the victory. How exactly these efforts can and will swing the numbers, both nationally and in the key states, remains to be seen, but I would be very surprised if this seeming organizational divide between the two campaigns isn't apparent in the ultimate results of the election.
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